| THE forecast of STRONG VOLCANIC eruptions of Pacific belt FOR the next 20 YEARS ON the BASis of APPLYING of a METHOD of PHASE PATHWAYS |
V.A. Shirokov1, Yu.K. Serafimova2 1Institute of Volcanology and Seismology of the Far Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, 683006, Russia2Kamchatkan Branch, Geophysical Survey, Russian Academy of Sciences, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, 683006, Russia For the first time a distribution of Pacific belt strong eruptions on datas of observations XVIII-XXI of centuries was studied on the two-dimensional phase plane. The coordinates of this plane were both the phase of 19-year's lunar tide and the phase of 22-year's magnetic solar cycle. The forecast of eruptions was made on the basis of a devising by authors the method of phase pathways for eight regions Pacific belt for the next 20 years. The retrospective estimation of long-term forecast efficiency was made. |
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